Democratic Downturn: Utah as Red as Ever

Democratic Downturn: Utah as Red as Ever

Beehive State Voters Want to Block Build Back Better

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PHOENIX (December 2nd, 2021)- Democratic President Joe Biden and his party seem to be suffering a numerical downturn among Utah voters. According to the latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) survey conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), Utah Republicans hold large leads on both the state generic ballot as well as the congressional generic ballot. 

This UTPOP was conducted November 5th – November 15th, 2021 and surveyed 671 Utah registered voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.8%. 

Since August, Biden’s favorability among Utah voters has dropped 20 points, making his net favorability in November -31% (32% favorable, 63% unfavorable); former President Donald Trump, Biden’s former presidential contender, has held relatively steady since August, currently sitting at -2 points (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable). Nonetheless, the 46th President has also lost ground with each party in terms of job approval, especially amidst Utah’s GOP and Independent voters. Biden’s net approval from Utah Republicans was -37 in August but has now dropped to -68 points (15% approve, 83% disapprove) as of November’s UTPOP. Among Utah Independents, President Biden’s net approval dropped from -3 in August to -15 points (39% approve, 54% disapprove) in November. While his overall approval numbers have sunk, Biden’s approval rating from Utah Democrats is still above water, but slowly diminishing. In August, Utah Democrats’ net approval rating for Joe Biden was +76 which has now dropped to +62 points (79% approve, 17% disapprove). 

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More than half of Utah men (52%) strongly disapprove of Biden’s job performance, along with 43% of women who say the same. In Salt Lake County, where he won by 11 points in the 2020 Presidential election, Biden is now underwater by -8 points (44% approve, 52% disapprove). Joe Biden is also sinking with moderates (-22) and conservatives (-73), but is currently above water with liberals (+54).

“Although Utah doesn’t have the same battleground status as other states in the Southwest, the data is telling a similar story in Utah as it has told in Arizona and Nevada: voters across the aisle are increasingly disappointed in the job Biden is doing, and they are turning their frustrations to Democratic office holders and candidates,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.

With buzzing news surrounding the Build Back Better Act, nearly half (48%) of Beehive State voters oppose the plan, while just 39% support the plan. The survey revealed that net support from Utah men is below water (-23), but is above water with women (+3). The Act garners a net support of +6 from voters aged 18-34 years old, but is below water among all other age groups, especially those aged 45-54 (-29) and 65+ years old (-25). Utah Democrats overwhelmingly support the Build Back Better Act with a net support of +78. With less support, the Act is above water with Independents (+7), but is below water with Utah GOP voters (-48). Further, the survey found that the more a Utah voter makes, the less they support the Build Back Better Act: Voters whose household income is less than $50k give a net support of +1, those making between $50k - $100k give a -13 net support, and those whose household income is $100k+ give the lowest net support (-24).

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“Despite the support for the Build Back Better Act from a majority of American voters, the Democratic President’s economic plan does not seem to hold well among Utah’s electorate,” said Mike Noble, “especially among older Republican men making more than $100k per year.”

On the state generic ballot which asked voters which party they believed would run the state better, Republicans still hold a large lead (51%) compared to Democrats (20%). While more Beehive State Independents lean towards favoring Republicans over Democrats (30% prefer Republicans, 23% prefer Democrats), overall, they are not confident in either party’s ability to lead Utah (48%). Looking to the congressional generic ballot which asked voters which party’s candidate they would vote for in their US House race, Republicans also hold a meaningful lead (41%) over Democrats (20%) in Utah. 

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According to the survey, two thirds of Utah Independents are either unsure whom they will vote for on the congressional ballot (54%) or are voting for another candidate (11%). Utah’s most populated county, Salt LakeCounty, is evenly split on the congressional ballot (32% Republican/31% Democrat), while all other regions in the state lean Republican by at least a 2:1 margin – and in some cases, a 3:1 margin. A note to add: Utah recently redrew its Congressional districts which split portions of Salt Lake County into each of Utah’s four Congressional districts. All four districts are heavily Republican, according to FiveThirtyEight.  

“Between Utah voters’ net opposition to Build Back Better, Utah Republicans’ substantial leads on generic and congressional ballots, and Biden’s rapidly dissolving numbers among Utah voters, Utah is as red a state as ever,” said Noble. 

Utah men heavily favor the Republican candidate on the congressional generic ballot (46% Republican, 16% Democrat) compared to women who favor the Republican candidate as well (36% R, 24% D). Republicans dominate among Utah suburbanites (40% R, 21% D) and Rural voters (53% R, 12% D), while even leading among Utah’s urban voters (34% R, 25% D).

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 5th – November 15th, 2021, from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 671 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.8%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 

Media Contacts:  

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034  

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights,v.sutliff@ohpredictive.com, (480) 398-0998  

AboutOH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insightsprovides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com.

About the UTPOP: The Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) survey is a statewide survey of a base sample of 800 – 1,000 general population state residents (18+ YO) with a statistically significant sample size of registered and likely voters included. Deploying surveys on a quarterly basis, we are able to gauge and keep an accurate and consistent pulse on the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of state residents on a number of relevant issues and pressing topics for corporate and political insights. With statewide Public Opinion Pulses also conducted in Nevada and Arizona in addition to Utah, our surveys allow data-seekers to look through the 3 unique lenses of general population residents, registered voters, and likely voters in each state for insights most relevant to them. To learn more about our statewide public opinion surveys and for information on how to purchase customized questions to add to our surveys, click here.