Midterm Check-In: Everything is Tight

Midterm Check-In: Everything is Tight

GOP Leads with Suburban Voters, Dems Up with Indies

Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here


PHOENIX (March 24th, 2022)- While many continue to process – and litigate – the fierce 2020 election, others are looking ahead to the 2022 midterms. Every statewide office and U.S. House seat will be up for grabs, and Senator Mark Kelly will be asking voters for a full six-year term.

Many recent OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) surveys have suggested that several races up and down the ballot will be decided by razor-thin margins. The March Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey was no exception. This AZPOP was conducted March 7th, 2022 – March 15th, 2022 and surveyed 753 Arizona registered voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.


Voting Intentions

Survey results find that an overwhelming majority of Arizona voters are likely to vote (87%), with 65% of those voters enthusiastic to do so. This enthusiasm carries throughout each party as there is no statistical change between each. Overall, Arizonans’ likelihood to vote is high, yet, looking deeper into who is very likely to vote, there is a clear disparity across party lines. Republicans are at the top with 84% saying they’re very likely to vote, Democrats are at 72%, and only 56% of Independents are very likely to vote.

As for how Grand Canyon State residents plan to vote, mail-in ballots are on the rise as a top choice for voting. As of the March AZPOP, 62% of Arizonans plan to vote entirely by mail, 12% plan to get their ballot by mail then physically turn it in before election day, 11% plan to vote in person on election day, and only 7% plan to vote in person before election day.


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“As seen in our previous survey release, Arizona voters are leaning deeper into their preferences for voting by mail, and this year’s midterm elections will be no exception with 3 in 5 Arizonans planning to vote entirely by mail,” said Mike Noble, Chief of OHPI Research.


Generic Ballots

Governor: Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits, which means that Arizona voters will be picking his successor this November. The generic gubernatorial ballot remains tight with a statistical tie between Republicans (39%) and Democrats (37%).

Senate: The generic Senate ballot is also a dead heat as Sen. Mark Kelly (D) awaits his Republican rival. Republicans are currently at 39%, while Democrat Mark Kelly is at 37%. Don’t expect Kelly to know who he’ll be facing any time soon: Arizona’s primary elections aren’t until August.

Congress: Arizona’s congressional map was recently redrawn as part of the decennial redistricting process, which resulted in several new competitive districts. With Democrats clinging to a narrow majority in the House, it’s becoming clear that Arizona will be ground zero in the fight for the majority. Democrats and Republicans are tied at 37% apiece in the generic congressional ballot.

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“The story we are left with from this data is that it’s still a level playing field for Arizona’s Governor, Senate, and Congressional races,” said Noble. “However, primary elections aren’t until August, so we will continue to keep a close eye to see who begins to climb the ladder.”  


In a state as evenly divided as Arizona, both parties are going to need all the votes that they can get. While there is no clear leader in these surveys, both parties received welcoming news.


Republican Advantages

Republicans hold healthy leads among suburban voters, a group that was particularly alienated by the rhetoric of former President Donald Trump. The GOP is also leading among middle-income voters on all three generic ballots.

Democratic Advantages

Democrats also hold a healthy advantage with “self-described moderates,” and lead among Arizona’s Independents and Hispanic voters.

Note: OHPI has been tracking registered voter data in our surveys, yet as the primary elections near, we will be transitioning from a registered voter view to likely voters for our surveys to get more accurate. We’ll be releasing our first likely voter’s survey in April.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from March 7 to March 15, 2022 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 753 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.6%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.


Media Contacts:

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@ohpredictive.com, (602) 390-5248

Megan Newsham, OH Predictive Insights, m.newsham@ohpredictive.com, (314) 287-1985


About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com.