OHPI Poll of Record: Mike Lee in Strong Position, Evan McMullin Trailing
Utah State Treasurer’s Race: Marlo Oaks is Well-Positioned, 4 in 10 Still Undecided
PHOENIX (November 1st, 2022)- While voters are hoping for clear skies and good weather next week on Election Day, these candidates are hoping for one thing: victory. OH Predictive Insights' (OHPI) latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) of likely voters revealed that the odds are in Mike Lee’s favor as he broke the 50% threshold of support in his race. Meanwhile, the Treasurer’s race shows the incumbent State Treasurer, Republican Marlo Oaks, well-positioned with his closest opponent at just 8%.
This UTPOP was conducted October 25th – October 27th, 2022 and surveyed 600 Utah likely voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 4.0%.
Utah U.S. Senate Race
In the race for the U.S. Senate in Utah, incumbent Republican Mike Lee is holding an assured position with support from 51% of likely voters, followed by unaffiliated candidate Evan McMullin at 36%. According to the poll, with just 4-points spread across Independent American candidate Tommy Williams and Libertarian James Arthur Hansen, just 9% remain Undecided in this contest.
“Mike Lee is in a prize position being over the all-important 50% threshold this close to Election Day,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “McMullin will be hard-pressed to make a push in these final days if he hopes to make up the ground on incumbent Mike Lee.”
What is interesting when looking at Lee’s support breakdown by Party Affiliation; he’s capturing 62% of Republicans, 38% among Independents, and even 22% of Democrats. McMullin’s support is equally as interesting by capturing 26% of Republicans, 49% of Independents, and 60% among Democrats. The problem is that there are a lot more Republicans than Independents and Democrats amongst the Utah Likely voting electorate.
The recent survey asked Mike Lee voters whether they were showing support because they were in favor of him, or because they were simply voting against McMullin. With nearly 9 in 10 saying they are doing so because they are in favor of him, Lee’s base is founded on true support. On the flip side, Evan McMullin’s coalition of support is less united. Half of those who said they are voting for McMullin are doing so because they are voting against Lee (47%), while 49% said they were voting in favor of McMullin.
“What is also interesting is that among Republicans voting for Evan McMullin, a majority (53%) are voting against Mike Lee which highlights the ideological division playing out in the GOP ranks as of late,” said Noble.
According to the recent survey, Republican incumbent Marlo M. Oaks continues to hold the lead at 38% support among likely voters; his closest opponent is at just 8%. Oaks’ support is slightly overshadowed by the 45% of voters who are still Undecided in this contest. Even so, Rogers, Buchman, and Horne are unlikely to earn winning shares of those undecideds in dependably-red Utah – 46% of Republicans are still undecided and will likely break in favor of Oaks.
“The large share of undecideds this close to Election Day may appear to be a beacon of hope for the other candidates,” said Noble. “However, it is far more likely that Oaks’ Republican Party ID, incumbency status, and appointment for the role by Governor Cox will secure him a victory at the ballot box.”
Methodology: This poll was conducted by OH Predictive Insights as 100% Phone based, Live caller, peer-to-peer text, and text-to-online. Cell/Landline split (74% Cell/ 26% Landline). The survey was completed from October 25th to October 27th, 2022, from a Utah likely voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the likely voter population by. The sample size was 600 likely voters in Utah with a MoE of +/- 4.0% Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com.
About the UTPOP: The Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) survey is a statewide survey of a base sample of 800 – 1,000 general population state residents (18+ YO) with a statistically significant sample size of registered and likely voters included. Deploying surveys on a quarterly basis, we are able to gauge and keep an accurate and consistent pulse on the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of state residents on a number of relevant issues and pressing topics for corporate and political insights. With statewide Public Opinion Pulses also conducted in Nevada and Arizona in addition to Utah, our surveys allow data-seekers to look through the 3 unique lenses of general population residents, registered voters, and likely voters in each state for insights most relevant to them. To learn more about our statewide public opinion surveys and for information on how to purchase customized questions to add to our surveys, click here.