Sinema Sinks Deeper Underwater After Voting Reforms Fail
Arizonans Have No Clear Opinion of Senate Filibuster
Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here
PHOENIX (February 3rd, 2022)- The Senate filibuster rule, which passes legislation with a 60-vote majority and allows the minority group to stall its passage, has blocked some signature elements of President Biden’s domestic agenda, such as election and voting reforms. While most Democratic Senators support ending it, Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) has been vocal in her support for the filibuster – a stance which, according to the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) from OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), continues to hurt her polling numbers in the Grand Canyon State.
This AZPOP survey was conducted January 11th – January 13th, 2022 and surveyed 855 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of +/-3.4%.
The Filibuster
The January poll finds that many Arizona voters have no clear position on the filibuster. More than one third (36%) have no opinion or are unsure where they stand on the Senate rule while a statistically equal 39% of voters say they support it. The remaining 24% oppose the filibuster. Republican voters are most supportive of the filibuster rule (54%) whereas Democrats are the most opposed (39%). Independents are more in favor (34%) than opposed (22%), but 44% of them have no opinion on the filibuster.
There is also not much decisiveness among Arizona’s electorate for or against allowing voting rights bills to bypass the filibuster. A 41% plurality are unsure while a statistically equal share support (29%) and oppose (30%) the proposed modification. Mirroring partisan sentiment on the filibuster, Democrats are most supportive of a filibuster exception for voting rights bills (49%), Republicans are most opposed (47%), and half of Independent voters are unsure.
“Many Democrats are frustrated that the filibuster is standing in the way of Biden-backed legislation, so it’s no surprise that Democrats are most opposed to the rule and most in favor of an exception,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “What has been interesting to watch is how drastically this ‘filibuster fight’ has effected Sen. Sinema’s popularity in her home state and among her own party.”
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema
Overall, 39% of Arizonans have a favorable view of Sinema while 48% view her in an unfavorable light. Notably, just 6% describe their view of Sinema as “very favorable” compared to the 19% whose view is “very unfavorable.”
While August 2024 is still a while away, what should concern Sinema are the groups leading her unfavorability rating. At 42% favorable and 48% unfavorable, Sinema is underwater with Democratic voters. Furthermore, half of Independents view Sen. Sinema unfavorably, giving her a double-digit net unfavorability among Arizona’s non-party-loyal voters.
“Kyrsten Sinema is becoming especially unpopular with groups that, on paper, look just like her: suburban women, white voters, Democrats, and even Arizona Independents are driving Sinema’s unfavorably in the Grand Canyon State,” said Mike Noble. “Apparently, August 2024 is of no concern to Sinema at this time as she seems to be keeping her course regardless of her electorate’s sentiment.”
Republican voters are split on their opinion of the Democratic Senator: 44% view Sinema favorably, 45% view her unfavorably.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from January 11th to January 13th, 2022 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 855 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.4%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contacts:
Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@ohpredictive.com, (480) 398-0998
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034
About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com