UT GOP: Two-Way Race between DeSantis and Trump

UT GOP: Two-Way Race between DeSantis and Trump

Over Half of Utah Republicans would be Satisfied with Either as the GOP Presidential Nominee

Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here

 

PHOENIX (January 23, 2023)- Midterms may be over, but OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) is already curious to discover voter sentiment for the 2024 Presidential Primaries, and what better place to start than in ruby-red Utah. In the first of four quarterly surveys in 2023, OHPI’s Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) took an early temperature check on Utah Republican voters’ preferences for the 2024 GOP presidential bid in order to track the movement of voter sentiment as the year progresses. According to the survey, Utah Republicans currently have former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at the top of their list for the 2024 GOP Presidential nominee.

This UTPOP was conducted December 27th, 2022 – January 4th, 2023. The survey sample was 600 Utah registered voters with a margin of error of +/-4.0%. Among the 600 voters surveyed, 302 were Utah registered Republicans, yielding a MoE of +/- 5.64% with this group.

Utah Republican voters were given a list of potential Republican candidates and asked which one they would be most likely to vote for the presidential bid in the 2024 GOP Primary. Of the twelve names offered, Donald Trump (42%) and Ron DeSantis (29%) beat out all other options by a landslide. The only other potential nominee to reach double-digit support was former Vice President Mike Pence at 11%.

utpop q1 2023 prez cand

“Among the likely suspects to run for president, it’s clear that anyone not named DeSantis or Trump will have an uphill battle to gain traction,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.  “Currently, Trump holds the high ground over DeSantis amongst Utah Republicans; however, much can change from now until then as the race heats up.”

Trump out-performs DeSantis by 24 points among 18-54 YO Utah Republicans and DeSantis holds a 5-point advantage over Trump with the 55+ YO’s.  Trump also does comparatively better than DeSantis with Female Republicans by a staggering 29 points and is lagging with Male Republicans by 5 points.

In addition to learning who Utah Republicans want to see as the GOP Presidential nominee, the survey gauged voters’ satisfaction for each name tested if they were to win the Republican Primary presidential bid. According to the results, more than half of Utah GOP voters would be satisfied with Donald Trump (58%) and Ron DeSantis (55%) as the Republican nominee. However, voters are far more polarized in their opinion of Trump with 34% saying they would be dissatisfied with Trump as the Republican nominee, compared to just 13% who would be dissatisfied with DeSantis.

utpop q1 2023 prez cand satisfaction

Opinions continue to be split among most other potential nominees. Among Republican figures with more than half of respondents having an opinion one way or the other, Liz Cheney braves a 3:1 dissatisfied to satisfied margin, and Kanye West holds the bottom of the list with 70% of Utah Republican voters dissatisfied with the hypothetical West nomination.

“It’s fascinating to see the former Vice President’s daughter and former Republican congresswoman for Wyoming within the same Satisfaction margin of Kanye West,” said Noble.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by O.H. Predictive Insights from December 27th, 2022 – January 4th, 2023 from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Among the 600 voters surveyed, 302 were Utah Registered Republicans, yielding a MoE of +/- 5.64% with this group. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 

Media Contacts:  

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insightsv.sutliff@ohpredictive.com, (602) 390-5248

Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insightsm.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

AboutOH Predictive Insights:As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm,OH Predictive Insightsprovides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call (602) 362-5694 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com.  

About the UTPOP: The Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) survey is a statewide survey of a base sample of 600 – 800 general population state residents (18+ YO) with a statistically significant sample size of registered and likely voters included. Deploying surveys on a quarterly basis, we are able to gauge and keep an accurate and consistent pulse on the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of state residents on a number of relevant issues and pressing topics for corporate and political insights. With statewide Public Opinion Pulses also conducted in Nevada and Arizona in addition to Utah, our surveys allow data-seekers to look through the 3 unique lenses of general population residents, registered voters, and likely voters in each state for insights most relevant to them. To learn more about our statewide public opinion surveys and for information on how to purchase customized questions to add to our surveys, click here.